Oriental and Occidental Mindoro provinces face heightened flood and landslide risks this weekend as a low pressure area (LPA) and shear line threaten to bring heavy rainfall to parts of Luzon, the state weather bureau PAGASA warned Thursday.

In its 11:00AM weather advisory, PAGASA forecast heavy to intense rainfall of 100-200 millimeters for Oriental Mindoro from Saturday noon to Sunday noon (December 22), while neighboring Occidental Mindoro is expected to experience moderate to heavy rainfall of 50-100 millimeters during the same period. This amount of rainfall is equivalent to roughly two weeks’ worth of typical December precipitation in the island.

The weather system, which includes the remnants of the weather disturbance formerly known as “Querubin,” is likely to trigger “numerous flooding events” in urbanized, low-lying areas, and areas near rivers, according to PAGASA.

Of particular concern are the agricultural plains of Oriental Mindoro, known as the country’s rice granary, where flooding could potentially impact recently planted crops.

PAGASA noted that areas with prior rainfall could face worsened impacts, with landslides likely in moderate to highly susceptible zones.

The mountainous areas of both provinces, including areas around Mount Halcon in Oriental Mindoro and the highlands of Occidental Mindoro, are particularly vulnerable to soil saturation and potential landslides.

The two Mindoro provinces will see a gradual intensification of rainfall, as neither is included in the heavy rainfall warnings for Thursday and Friday. However, by Saturday, Oriental Mindoro will be among the areas expected to receive the heaviest rainfall in the country, alongside Quezon, Camarines provinces, Marinduque, and Palawan.

The timing of the heavy rainfall is particularly concerning as it coincides with the weekend holiday rush, potentially affecting ferry operations between the provinces and mainland Luzon. The Batangas-Calapan and Batangas-Abra de Ilog routes are crucial maritime links that could face disruptions.

PAGASA advised local disaster risk reduction and management offices to “take all necessary measures to protect life and property” ahead of the anticipated severe weather conditions.

Residents in low-lying areas and those near river systems have been advised to monitor local weather updates and heed evacuation warnings.

The weather bureau will issue its next advisory at 5:00PM today, unless major changes occur in the weather system. This weather event follows a pattern of increasingly severe December rainfall in recent years, which meteorologists attribute to the effects of climate change and the persistent La Niña conditions affecting Mindoro island.