By Romel “Direk” Bernardo

Three weeks before the recently concluded elections, this writer penned an article detailing factors that could help shape the outcome of the battle royale between Governor Humerlito “Bonz” Dolor of PDP Laban and 1st district Congressman Salvador “Doy” Leachon of Mindoro Bago Sarili (MBS) party. In the said write-up, I listed crucial elements which may determine the outcome of the bitterly-contested political face-off: Calapan City Results; MBS Mayors’ Performance; Candidates’ Messaging; The Green Zone, and Iglesia Ni Cristo’s Pick.

Here’s what happened:

MBS Train Tanked in Calapan City
The conventional wisdom was that Rep. Leachon would be able to post a landslide win in “Imperial Calapan” after all, Leachon served as its city mayor for six years before becoming a congressman in 2013. Three weeks before the elections, a privately commissioned survey showed that Leachon still enjoys a comfortable 70-30 lead over Gov. Dolor. However, a week before the elections, a highly-placed source revealed that the most recent survey showed that the congressional race got tighter to a 65-35 frame. While that will still give the veteran lawmaker 20,000 to 25,000 votes, that may no longer be enough to cover Dolor’s expected lead in the southern district. As indicated in this writer’s several write-ups, I warned that Leachon couldn’t afford to have the same 55-45 output as in 2019 when he outpointed Tita Malou Morillo. Guess what? That’s exactly what happened when Doy collected 42,739 votes against Bonz’s 34,551 votes – or a mere 10-point lead, giving the former just a little over 8,000. The writing was on the wall.

Messaging
Rep. Leachon did everything right in the political playbook to dethrone the incumbent governor. He started early and built a residential complex in Pinamalayan – a known Dolor stronghold. He also successfully expanded MBS’s membership from 40,000 to 70,000 adherents. He also leveraged his powerful position as deputy speaker in the House of Representatives to secure funding for infrastructure projects for his district and the towns in the southern area. He successfully recruited almost all incumbent mayors into joining the MBS fold.

But Dolor has potent weapons in his arsenal that Leachon couldn’t match – public speaking prowess and flair for dramatics. While he is the incumbent, Dolor successfully projected an image of being the “underdog” who was the subject of his challenger’s “vicious attacks and accusations.” Dolor was also able to connect to the emotions of voters by using language and words and tapping on values that resonate with ordinary folks, such as “pagmamahal”, “pautingin ng pagtitiwala”, “lapat sa tao” among others.

The Green Zone
To counter Leachon’s expected lead in Calapan, my previous article noted that Dolor had to score impressively in the green zone – towns that gave him a five-digit lead over the late Rep. Reynaldo Umali in the 2019 polls. These are: Pinamalayan, 68-26; Roxas, 67-28; Bongabong, 65-32; and Naujan, 60-27. Bonz outdid himself when he registered a staggering 68% average in his green bailiwicks: Roxas, 75-25; Pinamalayan, 66-34; Naujan, 65-35 and Bongabong, 64-36. Dolor’s votes in the four towns totaled 105,600 versus Leachon’s 51,780. This means that Bonz’s output in the four municipalities alone accounts for 41% of his 255,696 total votes in the entire province. Moreover, Bonz’s 53,820 margin in the green zone already accounts for 73% of his final 73,495 lead.

MBS Mayors Underperformed
In this regard, I wrote, “MBS has the biggest names in local politics. But the question is, will these MBS card-carrying mayors be able to deliver votes for the lawmaker from Calapan?” They did not, except for one or two local chief executives who fought hard for the MBS honcho based on the election results in their respective towns. Among the MBS-allied mayors, only Rocky Ilagan of Puerto Galera and, to some extent, Ronnie Morada of Bansud demonstrated resistance against the political avalanche. Aside from Calapan City, the town of Puerto Galera was the only locality where the deputy speaker won (Leachon – 12,889 vs. Dolor – 8,235). Meanwhile, it was only in the town of Bansud where Doy, with the help of Morada, proved competitive, losing by just 1,727 votes. Because of this, don’t be surprised if one hears the governor these lines: “Sa ikalawang pagkakataon, ako’y nanalo kahit walang kasamang mga malalaking pulitiko. Muli ang tanging kasama ko sa laban ay ang taumbayan at ang Panginoong Diyos!”

Iglesia Ni Cristo’s endorsement set the stage for what is to come.
The Bonz-Doy super-fight remained a “pick of ’em” fight until Tuesday night when the governor dropped a bombshell by announcing in a campaign rally that he had secured the much-coveted endorsement of the block-voting Iglesia Ni Cristo. News of the supposed endorsement – while not yet official – spread like wildfire all over the province. “Tapos na ang boksing,” exclaimed a visibly dejected Leachon supporter from the south. “Nanahimik na ang mga leaders ni Cong. Doy; parang pinagbagsakan ng langit at lupa” revealed a respected figure who remained loyal with Leachon until the very end.

In my previous article, I listed INC’s total churches in the province at 105. That was an outdated figure. Based on the church’s directory online, the homegrown sect has 110 congregations all over the province spread into two ecclesiastical divisions, 63 in the first district and 47 in the second district. While the church’s membership isn’t public, some estimates range between 30,000 to 40,000. But here’s the clue: you multiply the church’s total locales by 200 voters – although there are locales with more than 500 to close to 2,000 members – and you get a rough estimate of its voting strength which brings us to at least 22,000. The INC’s endorsement is also a two-punch combination if you apply the “plus and minus principle.”

The late Rep. Reynaldo Umali, former Governor Rodolfo Valencia, and now, Cong. Doy Leachon—these are political heavyweights that Dolor has impressively dismantled. It seems there are no more challengers for the undisputed political leader of the province. Unless City Mayor and Congressman-elect Arnan C. Panaligan—the only politician who holds the bragging rights of defeating Dolor in their vice-gubernatorial face-off in 2004—decides to go local in the next polls for a Panaligan-Dolor rematch of sorts, in a much bigger superfight in 2025. Abangan!