BATTLE ROYALE: 2nd District Rep. Alfonso “P.A.” Umali, who has been lording over southern Mindoro’s political landscape for more than two decades, reportedly faces Vice-Governor Ejay Falcon and Provincial Administrator Dr. Hubbert Dolor in a thrilling three-cornered congressional war in 2025.

This analysis of the 2019 congressional elections in the 2nd district of Or. Mindoro originally appeared in newsportal mindorotv.com and has been updated based on the latest developments in the run-up to the 2025 mid-term elections.

By Romel “Direk” Bernardo

Let’s get real—second district Cong. Alfonso “Boy” Umali, together with his family, are on their way down, if not out. After dominating Eastern Mindoro politics for more than two decades and winning eight consecutive elections, Mindoreños have apparently grown apathetic of their political brand. Need proofs? One only needs to look at their electoral performance in 2019 polls to know their brand is losing its luster. His brother, the late former lawmaker Rey Umali, who succumbed to COVID in January 2021, lost big time in his attempt to rule the Provincial Capitol. Rey’s son, Pau, got whipped in his bid to become mayor in their supposed stronghold. And Boy? Well, he won, but barely.

Cong. Boy won handily in the traditionally pro-Umali towns of Bansud and Bulalacao, winning 69% and 60% of votes, respectively. He, however, failed to impress in municipalities where he was expected not just to win – but dominate. In Gloria, where his top lieutenant, Mayor German “Bitoy” Rodegerio looked unstoppable, he picked up only 52% of the votes. In Pinamalayan, where his ultra-popular ally Mayor Aristeo “Aris” Baldos, Jr. scored a landslide victory, Umali settled with just 43% share. This output is a sub-par showing compared to his past electoral performances in the said town. The results in the three remaining municipalities showed signs of his declining appeal. In traditionally lukewarm Roxas, he got outnumbered by the hometown bet, ex congressman Manny Andaya, 41% to 57%. His loss in his town in Bongabong was particularly revealing because he only got the nod of just 47% of its residents, compared to outsider Andaya’s 51%. The results in Mansalay were a virtual draw with the three-term governor’s 49% hits compared to the one-time congressman’s 48% output.

Instead of turning a vintage performance, Umali showed signs of struggle or in our vernacular –”pinagpawisan” –in his uninspiring outing against an opponent whom he had already dismantled 18 years ago. But the better description probably is “sinuwerte.” If not for the crucial support of the influential Iglesia Ni Cristo with more than 48 churches – or at least 10,000 to 12,000 voters – in the district, Boy would have suffered the same embarrassing fate as the two other clan members.

The last elections weren’t the first time that Boy got lucky, though. In his political debut in 2001, he eked out a win over former representatives Manny Andaya and the late Jess Punzalan in a three-way fight. His two opponents both came from Roxas and bitterly split the ROMANBUL district. On the other hand, Boy did well in the different municipalities, especially in Pinamalayan, which gave his candidacy the vital push. His lead? Less than 2,000 votes.

While he appeared to have finished his first full term as a congressman with ease, a more in-depth analysis of the results of the elections – especially in 2007 – showed chinks in Boy’s armor. In his last defense of congressional post in his first nine-year term, he faced someone who people have practically never heard of just months before elections. From the get-go, nobody took his opponent, journalist Margaux Salcedo, seriously. Having been based in Manila for almost all her life, she only came to Mindoro to run for public office. Sumulpot na lang bigla. But lo and behold, she did well in the elections without the backing of any known local politicians. With no mayors and prominent leaders on her side, she still garnered more than 33,000 votes against the third termer Boy.

Then, in 2010, he got lucky again! In one of the closest-fought gubernatorial contests in recent history, Boy landed a “lucky punch” on then incumbent governor Arnan Panaligan, who lost the post by a mere 105 votes. The INC, with about 112 churches or “lokal” and about 40,000 members all over the province, was on Boy’s side anew. Ang swerte talaga.

Boy Umali and LP Mayors
Before the 2019 elections, Boy Umali had the support of six out of seven incumbent mayors who belonged to the Liberal Party. They were Mayors Aris Baldos, Pinamalayan; Bitoy Rodegerio, Gloria; Angel Saulong, Bansud; Violeta Dimapilis, Roxas; Joel Maliwanag, Mansalay; and Niel Villas of Bulalacao. If politics were boxing, he was the undisputed champion supposed to quickly knock out a washed-up opponent who had seen better days. Threshing out the election results revealed glaring disparities between the votes secured by the congressman compared to his incumbent allies:

PINAMALAYAN Aristeo Baldos, Jr. Boy Umali Variance

VOTES/SHARE 25,291 (76%) 13,131 (43%) 12,160 votes

GLORIA Bitoy Rodegerio Boy Umali Variance

13,855 (63%) 10,679 (52%) 3,167 votes

BANSUD Morada/Saulong* Boy Umali Variance

10,792+ 7,893 (100%) 11,069 (68%) 7,696 votes

ROXAS Violeta Dimapilis Boy Umali Variance

10,908 (47%) 8,947 (42%) 1,961 votes

MANSALAY Totoy Maliwanag Boy Umali Variance

11,765 (54%) 9,578 (49%) 2,187 votes

BULALACAO Niel Villas Boy Umali Variance

11,052 (64%) 9,315 (60%) 1,737 votes

The variance of votes between Boy Umali and mayors Villas, Maliwanag, and Dimapilis, ranging from 1,737 to 2,187, were negligible because they had either famous or resource-rich opponents to contend in 2019. But the disparity of votes between the Liberal Party provincial head and the mayors of Pinamalayan and Gloria were intriguing. In the most progressive town in the 2nd district, it was more than 12,000. In Gloria, it was beyond 3,000. Meanwhile, in Bansud, where the two competing figures, Morada and ex-mayor Angel Saulong went all out for Boy, the disparity was close to 7,700.

The results reflect one undeniable truth: there was a voters’ fatigue from the Umali family. For his ally mayors, it was too hard to overcome. The 2019 polls exposed an undeniable slump in Boy’s political capital.

Going deeper into Boy’s performance in the district’s 165 barangays reveals alarming data about the congressman’s undeniable decline. In Pinamalayan, he lost in 15 barangays and had a virtual tie-in one – which should be counted as a loss because he didn’t win there. These were Bacungan, Cacawan, Del Razon, Guinhawa, Malaya, Maliangcog, Nabuslot, Palayan, Pambisan Malaki (1 pt difference), Panggulayan, Zone 1, Zone 2, Zone 3, Zone 4, Sta. Rita, and Wawa. The majority of these communities backed hometown bet Ed Janda, while a few have supported Andaya.

In Gloria, Andaya made surprising inroads in this supposed Umali stronghold where Mayor Rodegerio scored an easy win. Although the congressman had the backing from ALL barangay captains, he still lost in six barangays, four of which are included in the area’s top 7 most populous barangays. These are: Tambong (top2); Malamig (top 3); Balete (top 4), Narra (top 7), Agos and San Antonio.

It was a bloodbath in Roxas, and the Umalis were the casualties. Despite gaining a mere 3,000 votes during his mayoral bid in 2016, Andaya was able to win in 85% of barangays. While Roxas has never warmed up for the Umalis, Boy’s tragic loss in 17 out of 20 barangays was particularly telling. These were Cantil, Dangay, Libertad, Libtong, Mabuhay, Maraska, Odiong, Paclasan, San Aquilino, San Isidro, San Jose, San Mariano, San Miguel, San Rafael, Uyao, Victoria, and Little Tanuan.

Andaya continued to impress in Mansalay, where he won in seven out of 17 barangays. These barangays included Balugo, Roma, Sta Brigida, Sta. Maria and Villa Celestial. It is significant to note that these barangays occupy the town’s northeastern section, closer to Roxas, where residents often visit to buy essential commodities. Andaya also scored a decisive victory in seaside communities of Wasig and B Del Mundo, Mansalay’s largest barangay.

In Bongabong, the only municipality where the incumbent mayor refused to bow down to the ruling political family, Andaya won over Boy Umali’s hometown bet. Of course, Andaya was not capable of accomplishing the feat by himself. The one-time lawmaker’s surprising win was more of a reflection of Mayor Malaluan’s clout in the southern district’s second most populous municipality. Malaluan carried Andaya in 22 out of 36 barangays; BB1, Batangan, Bukal, Camantigue, Cawayan, Formon, Hagupit, Kaligtasan, Labasan, Labonan, Libertad, Lisap, Luna, Mapang, Masaguisi, Morente, Sagana, San Isidro, San Jose, San Juan, and Sigange. Umali, on the other hand, secured 14 barangays in his hometown. But it should be pointed out the Umali could have also lost in six more barangays like BB2, Ipil Hagan, Dayhagan, Ogbot, and Orconuma if not for the INC’s strong presence in the said barangays. While Boy won, his brother Rey and nephew Pau who failed to get the endorsement of the influential church, lost big in four out of five abovementioned communities.

In all, Cong. Umali won in 98 or 60% out of 165 total barangays in the second district. His outputs in Bansud and Bulalacao provided consolation of some sorts. He made a complete sweep in the two towns’ 28 barangays and the almost 80% positive register in Gloria. His overall haul in the three municipalities is 49, which is precisely 50% of 98 totals. Kung magigiba si Boy sa Bansud at Bulalacao at magpplay safe o manunuod lang sina Morada at Villas next elections, lalong tapos na ang karera.

Urban Voters vs. Bukid Electorate

The stark difference in voters’ choices between those coming from progressive barangays and those living in interior communities became apparent, especially in crucial towns of Pinamalayan, Gloria, Roxas, and Mansalay.

The congressman’s victory in Gloria’s three out of six urban/urbanizing barangays (50%) is way lower than’s Boy’s 78% winning percentage in the entire town’s 27 barangays. Umali won in three bustling communities, such as Bulaklakan, Maligaya, Kawit, but lost in adjacent urbanizing barrios, namely Tambong (right beside the proper), Narra, and lost big the suburban area of Balete.

In essence, the former congressman’s showing in the large municipality of Mansalay was less than inspiring: Andaya’s 48% matched Umalis’ 49% share. In terms of his performance in the town’s developing sections, Umali only won two (Poblacion and Teresita) out of six highly accessible barangays. On the other hand, Andaya captured Santa Brigida, Villa Celestial, Wasig, and the town’s biggest barangay of Del Mundo (San Antonio).

Boy Umali’s 23% connect rate in Pinamalayan’s developing barangays is way lower than’s his 59% winning percentage in the town’s entire 37 barangays. Umali won in Sto. Nino, Marfrancisco, and Papandayan but lost in 10 urban/urbanizing/along the highway communities such as Nabuslot, Palayan, Panggulayan, Sta. Rita, Cacawan, Zone 1, Zone 2, Zone 3, Zone 4, and Del Razon.

However, Boy was strong in rural areas. He swept all of Pinamalayan’s coastal barangays, such as Guinhawa, Pili, Sta. Isabel, Banilad, and Ranzo. He also did well in the interior villages of Sta. Maria, Pagala-gala, Pambisan Munti as well as remote communities of Inclanay, Marayos, Sabang and Pambisan Munti.

The congressman’s dismal performance in the progressive towns was on full display in Roxas after its citizens’ outright rejection of the congressman’s comeback bid. He was severely beaten in Roxas’ urban centers of Bagumbayan, Dangay, Paclasan, and Odiong and in urbanizing Cantil and San Aquilino.

Like in Pinamalayan, Boy Umali only managed to win in the three most remote barangays in Roxas. One of which is Happy Valley, the hilly village that sits in the border between Roxas and Bongabong. The other one is San Vicente, the town’s most remote village that is home to a sizable Mangyan community.

While it may require further scientific look, this trend validates Boy’s failure to win the votes of these families living in developing barangays that have easy access to educational institutions, cable connections, telephone and internet services, telecommunication signals, and transportation options. These vital facilities could provide them with critical news and information that could help them make intelligent choices even in their lives, even elections.

It is not a stretch to assume that many of these voters probably belong to the middle class since they could afford to reside in urban centers and high-priced residences along the national highway. And as thining voters, they are not susceptible to pressure from barangay officials, not to politicians’ bribes.

It has been said election results merely mirror voters’ tastes or preferences. In that case, Boy is a darling of the remote barrio folks. In Boy’s third and final congressional run in the coming 2025 polls, his challengers must exert all possible efforts to communicate with these thinking voters real issues and how inclusive leadership could help change their lives.

Boy Umali is no longer the most dominant politician around. Yes, he still won big in Bansud and Bulalacao; but he struggled in Gloria and Pinamalayan. He got a draw in Mansalay and significantly lost in Roxas and Bongabong. The writings are on the wall. Boy’s luck is running out.

2025 Congressional Elections

With the 2025 mid-term elections a mere 14 months away, Cong. Alfonso Umali may face two credible opponents that may derail his plans to complete his third and final term. Popular Vice-Gov Ejay Falcon is rumored to have an intent to transfer his voter’s registration in Roxas while the respected Provincial Administrator Dr. Hubbert Dolor — Governor Bonz Dolor’s older brother — has been testing the waters through his frequent visits in the south for a potential congressional run.

But don’t count Cong Boy Umali out yet. This early, he has already started consolidating his political allies among the southern towns’ village leaders, many of whom were treated to an out of the country trip, all expense paid by the congressman. Moreover, a reliable source shared that the Liberal Party loyalist has a P200M to P250M warchest in place in his last defense of his congressional post.

No less than Umali’s seatmate in Congress attests to his colleague’s longevity and tenacity. In an exclusive banter with this writer, 1st District Rep. Arnan C. Panaligan chimes in the reported three-way fight in the south.

“Vice-Gov Ejay and PA Hubbert Dolor should realize that Boy always prevails in three-way wars. Boy should not be counted out as he demonstrated in the past that no matter how tough the challengers are, he always finds a way and will to win.”

The former governor and Calapan City Mayor’s assessment is illustrated in the three elections when Boy registered close wins over Punzalan and Andaya in 2001; Andaya and Atty. Ed Janda in 2019; and Joanna Valencia and Anthony Yap in 2022.

Will luck still smile on Umali in 2025? The province’s only undefeated political heavyweight and southern Mindoro’s undisputed political kingpin is in for a fight of his political life next polls.